SUBSEASONAL-EPI-HYR v2022.01 QA

10.5676/DWD/SUBSEASONAL-EPI-DEHYR_V2022.01_QA

Weekly anomalies and Qquality assessment of subseasonal forecastclimate predictions for Subseasonal Climate Predictions (ECMWF IFS-ENS-extended) for Germany and neighboring countries (EPISODES) Version 2022.01 Weekly anomalies and Qquality assessment of subseasonal forecastclimate predictions for Subseasonal Climate Predictions (ECMWF IFS-ENS-extended) downscaled over Germany and neighboring countries using the empirical-statistical downscaling method EPISODES version 2022 Wehring, Sabrina; Hoff, Amelie; Lorenz, Philip; Pasternack, Alexander; Paxian, Andreas; Kreienkamp, Frank; Früh, Barbara
Weekly anomalies and Qquality assessment of subseasonal forecastclimate predictions for Subseasonal Climate Predictions (ECMWF IFS-ENS-extended) for Germany and neighboring countries (EPISODES) Version 2022.01 https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD/SUBSEASONAL-EPI-DEHYR_V2022.01_QA
Wehring, Sabrina; Hoff, Amelie; Lorenz, Philip; Pasternack, Alexander; Kreienkamp, Frank; Früh, Barbara
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, http://www.dwd.de/EN/Home/home_node.html) 2022 The weekly anomalies, tThe Mean Squared Errors and the Pearson Correlation Coefficients are calculated for the subseasonal climate predictions of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) ENS/Extended-Range Forecast and downscaled over Germany and neighboring countries using the empirical-statistical downscaling method EPISODES version 2022. The weekly variable anomalies and the corresponding quality measures are available on a Germany-wide grid of about 5 km x 5 km of about 5 km x 5 km on the ETRS89-extended LCC Europe map projection (EPSG:3034) and are weekly aggregated. The anomalies of the following variable anomalies are included in the data set: anomaly of air temperature 2 m (daily mean: tasAnom, daily maximum: tasmaxAnom, daily minimum: tasminAnom), anomaly of precipitation (prAnom), anomaly of relative humidity 2 m (hursAnom), anomaly of global radiation (rsdsAnom), anomaly of cloud area fraction (cltAnom), anomaly of sea level pressure (pslAnom), and anomaly of wind speed 10 m (sfcWindAnom).

The ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System is described by: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/publications/ifs-documentation. Model Configurations for Ensemble Forecasts (ENS) and Extended-Range Forecast is described by https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/2.1.2+Model+Configurations.

The empirical-statistical downscaling method EPISODES version 2018 is described by: Kreienkamp, F., Paxian, A., Früh, B. et al. Evaluation of the empirical-statistical downscaling method EPISODES. Clim Dyn 52, 991-1026 (2019). DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4276-2. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4276-2. Kreienkamp, F., Lorenz, P., Geiger, T. Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Projections Show Stronger Warming for Germany. Atmosphere 11, 1245 (2020). DOI: 10.3390/atmos11111245. https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/11/1245. The latest EPISODES version 2022 contains minor bug fixes and technical updates for climate predictions.

Along with the weekly aggregated model forecast, the associated quality measures MSE and correlation coefficient are also provided. These measures were calculated grid point-wise with an analogous weekly temporal aggregation for forecast and observational/reanalysis data. For The verification period forof precipitation (pr) over Germany a the period startsing 20 years and endsing one year before the actual forecast year was applied. Regarding the verification of the remaining variables the verification period ends 2018. For regions outside Germany the verification period ends 2015. The variable pr was verified using the HYRAS operational observation (https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/hyras/hyras.html). Regarding the verification of the remaining variables (tas, tasmax, tasmin, hurs, rsds, clt, psl and sfcWind) the verification period ends 2018 by usingbecause the reanalysis COSMO-REA6 (https://reanalysis.meteo.uni-bonn.de/?COSMO-REA6) is used. For tas, tasmax and tasmin, hurs, rsds, clt, psl and sfcWind cosmo-rea6 was used. For further technical info regarding the provided subseasonal climate predictions please visit https://esgf.dwd.de/projects/climatepredictionsde/subseasonal-epi-hyr-v2022-01.

Climate predictions should only be used considering the respective prediction skills and recommended time aggregations. Figures of the climate prediction skills are available on a regular grid with 0.3° x 0.2° for Germany on https://www.dwd.de/climatepredictions. V2022.01 Okt. 2022 to present Daily Monthly HYR-5 (Germany and parts of neighbouring countries on a 5 km x 5 km grid in ETRS89-extended LCC Europe) NetCDF4
approx. 1,2 MB per netcdf file The Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) is the producer of the data. The General Terms and Conditions of Business and Delivery apply for services provided by DWD https://www.dwd.de/EN/service/terms/terms.html Zentrales Klimabüro
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